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SEPTEMBER 19,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:55 P.M. ET: 

BIDEN READY TO ROLL? – From Fox:  Vice President Biden’s aides in recent days called Democratic donors and supporters to suggest he is more likely than not to enter the 2016 race, and their discussions have shifted toward the timing of an announcement, said people familiar with the matter, according to The Wall Street Journal.  While the Biden team is still debating the best time to jump in, the vice president met Monday with his political advisers and talked about the merits of an early entry that would assure him a place in the Democratic debate scheduled for Oct. 13. They also are honing his campaign message and moving ahead with plans to raise money and hire staff, the people said.  Biden's position is not that great.  He's a fine man personally, with a moving story, but he's never inspired much confidence as a presidential prospect.  He'll be seen mainly as an alternative to the faltering queen.  And that may be enough.

A MINOR OMISSION – From the Washington Times:   Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s top aides have belatedly turned over more than 100,000 pages of emails they had kept on personal email accounts, or accounts tied to Mrs. Clinton’s server, the government told a federal judge late Friday.  Huma Abedin turned over an estimated 23,000 pages of emails, Philippe Reines gave back 70,000 pages of messages and Cheryl Mills returned somewhere in the neighborhood of 11,870 pages, the Obama administration told Judge Rudolph Contreras in a court filing.  And unlike Mrs. Clinton’s emails, the State Department does not have plans to post online all of those three aides’ messages, instead deciding to release only select messages that are requested through particular open-records demands.  Would you look at those numbers!  Did they do anything besides e-mail?  This scandal is going to drag on and on.  It's the steady drip that will, in my view, likely terminate Clinton's campaign.

CABLE COMPANIES BUCKLING – From CNBC:   It all started with a simple sentence.  "Trends among younger audiences ... will continue to put pressure on the multichannel ecosystem," said Disney CEO Bob Iger during the company's third-quarter conference call on Aug. 4. Those comments stoked fears of cord cutting and sent shares of Disney and other media companies into a tailspin.  According to a new survey, Iger's fears may be justified. The data show that the so-called "cord-cutting" phenomenon—where consumers jettison traditional cable and satellite packages in favor of streaming services—is about to get a lot worse. A new report by Magid Advisors surveyed 2,400 consumers and found that cord cutting is not only on the rise, but it's happening much more quickly than industry watchers anticipated.  According to Magid, 3.7 percent of pay TV subscribers age 18 to 64 said they were "extremely likely" to cancel their pay TV service in the next 12 months. That number is up from 2.9 percent in 2014, and represents a 95 percent increase over results from 2011.  The changes in technological preference are simply dazzling.  It seems like yesterday that cable was cutting edge.  I get the feeling that what young viewers value most is the ability to call up programs or movies at any time, at their convenience, eliminating the traditional TV schedule.  That ability is already here with many offerings. 

September 19, 2015       Permalink

THAT'S WHAT THEY SAY IN HOLLYWOOD – IT'S NOT PERSONAL – AT 11:56 A.M. ET:  Iran's leader has a kind message for Americans.  Maybe he finally hired a PR agency.  From AFP:

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has tried to reassure a skeptical American public that when crowds in Tehran chant “Death to America!” they don’t mean it personally.

In an interview with the CBS show 60 Minutes to be broadcast Sunday in the United States, the Iranian president said the famous Friday ritual is a reaction to previous Washington policy decisions that hurt Iran.

In April, US President Barack Obama’s administration signed a deal with Rouhani’s government to release Iran from many of the economic sanctions harming its economy in return for tight controls on its nuclear program.

But many in the United States are still convinced that Iran, which is ultimately led not by Rouhani but by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remains bent on their country’s destruction.

In a July speech, Khanemei hailed the Iranian masses for demanding the destruction of Israel and America, and said he hoped that God would answer their prayers. A clip published by Khamenei on social media earlier this week warned the US it would be defeated in any war with Iran.

In the fierce domestic American debate over the deal, opponents have often cited the regular appearance of chanting anti-American crowds as evidence of Tehran’s true intentions.

COMMENT:  Pure baloney.   The previous Iranian president denied the Holocaust.  What did that have to do with American policy?  Iran murders its own dissidents and suppresses its women.  Also due to American policy?  And what did Israel ever do to Iran?  It was an ally of Iran before the Islamic radicals took over Iran in the late 70s.

Iran wants to dominate the region.  That is its policy.  And it doesn't bring progress or democracy.

September 19, 2015       Permalink

HEY, THIS IS GREAT! – AT 11:17 A.M. ET:  Occasionally we get to bring you good news.  This is very good indeed, and it disproves the idea that the "majority minority" country to come will inevitably tilt Democratic.  From Fox:

Conservative-minded Indian-Americans are forming a new Republican group seeking to mobilize their large and powerful community to back GOP candidates in what the founder calls “a very important time in history.”

Shalabh “Shalli” Kumar, a prominent Indian-American businessman, has taken the lead in forming the Republican Hindu Coalition (RHC) in order to promote conservative principles such as free markets and limited government, with a focus on how they relate to Indian Americans. The organization is modeled after groups like the Republican Jewish Coalition, and plans to spend big in next year's elections.

"This is a very important time in history. The country has suffered so much so dramatically in the last eight years, and another four or eight years of the same direction, the U.S. as we know it will come to an end,” Kumar told FoxNews.com.

“We are actually giving away our economic future to China, the world is a lot less secure today than it was seven years ago, and conservatives and Republicans have to win and take the White House. This is the time when Hindu Americas should very actively get involved,” Kumar said.

There are approximately 3.7 million Indian-Americans in the U.S. and about 50 percent of those are Hindu, according to Pew Research data. (Though the group is called the Republican Hindu Coalition, organizers say it's open to all faiths.) Kumar said that while many Hindus are ideologically conservative-leaning, they have not yet mobilized to vote for Republicans.

COMMENT:  Look for other groups like this.  The Dems assume that Hispanic-Americans are in their pocket, but the Hispanic community is diverse.  Second-generation Hispanics perform like other second-generation immigrant groups.  They don't want handouts.  They seek opportunities.

I can still recall when Catholics were considered "safe" Democrats.  That was before Reagan.  But the Democratic Party began to mock Catholic values, especially reverence for life.  Many Catholics in 1980 became Reagan Democrats, and then Republicans. 

A vibrant conservative party that takes the time and trouble to reach out to new immigrant groups can be spectacularly successful.  Ignoring immigrant groups will only lead to failure.

September 19, 2015       Permalink

"MORE DEBATES!" – AT 10:33 A.M. ET:  That has become code language in the Democratic Party for "We don't want Hillary," and the chant is spreading.  It calls for the party to hold more than the six presidential candidate debates that are scheduled.  Now Nancy Pelosi joins in, a significant political development.  If you've lost Nancy...  From the L.A. Times: 

Hillary Rodham Clinton's rivals in the Democratic primary have been demanding for weeks that the party hold more presidential debates than the scant six that are planned, and on Friday they got a big boost when House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco said she agrees with them.

Asked in an interview with The Times whether she would like to see more debates scheduled, Pelosi responded, “I would.”

“Hillary does well -- I think they all do well on them -- and we should have more debates,” Pelosi said. She said she does not have a specific number in mind, but that the 26 debates the Democratic candidates took part in during the 2008 primary was probably too many.

“They thought 26 was too many, and I think it is, and you probably should have something in between,” Pelosi said. “But I don't know that we're going to have more debates.”

The debate schedule has become an increasingly awkward issue for the Clinton campaign as the first scheduled event, on Oct. 13 in Nevada, approaches. Clinton's primary challengers have suggested the schedule was designed by party insiders to favor the front-runner, who was so far ahead in the polls when it was drafted that there seemed to be little for her to gain in the race by sharing a stage with lesser-known opponents.

Clinton's support in early voting states has slipped considerably since then, particularly in New Hampshire, where some polls show her trailing Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Now, some longtime Clinton allies are saying it may be in her interest to have more debates.

COMMENT:  No, it would not be in her interest.  Her "allies" are knifing her, knowing that her campaign is collapsing.  They look ahead to potential legal troubles for Clinton, and they see her woeful ineptness as a campaigner.

We never thought there'd be much excitement on the Democratic side in the presidential nomination races, but politics always has surprises. 

We might also note that the Democratic field is decidedly mediocre, with not a single star. 

September 19,  2015     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 18,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:

SAD – From the Chicago Sun-Times:  WASHINGTON — Former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., D-Ill., completed his prison sentence on Friday, setting the stage for his wife, former Ald. Sandi Jackson (7th), to report to prison in 30 days.  Jackson, 50, has been finishing up his sentence on home confinement at his DuPont Circle residence here. When he arrived at home last June, he told the Sun-Times he was working on his memoir.  Jackson’s movements under home confinement were closely monitored and he wore a GPS device around his ankle.  Jackson’s official release date was this Sunday. Bureau of Prisons spokesman Ed Ross said when a release date falls on a weekend, the inmate is let go the Friday before.  He could've been something, but he used campaign funds to buy personal luxuries.  His wife filed a false tax return.  We hope they can make a contribution to society.  They were not treated unfairly.

WHAT KIND OF COUNTRY? – From Breitbart:  Foreigners who want to become U.S. citizens don’t have to change their attitudes or beliefs, President Barack Obama said in a video aimed at convincing migrants to pursue American citizenship.  “It’s not about changing who you are, it’s about adding a new chapter to your journey… and to our journey as a nation of immigrants,” Obama narrates in his two-minute video urging almost 9 million resident migrants to sign up for citizenship so they can vote in 2016.  Obama’s deputies will award citizenship to 36,000 over the next few days.  But federal law — and reality — contradicts Obama’s progressive-style denial of Americans’ sophisticated, evolved and unique society, and contradicts his support for a chaotically diverse “nation of immigrants” devoid of any unique and shared loyalties and obligations.  Obama said he would fundamentally change America, and he meant it.  Citizenship used to mean something.  You came to America to become an American, not a half-and-half.  Obama's pitch is designed to put millions of immigrants on the voter rolls, in the belief that most will vote Democratic. 

OUR NEXT GENERATION – From The College Fix:  Victimhood has become a virtue in America’s shifting culture, scholars argue.  A journal article by two sociologists suggests the rise of microaggressions stems from a culture of victimhood that celebrates the aggrieved and perceives them as virtuous martyrs – most notably on college campuses.  Making matters worse, this perception is fostered by administrations that coddle and support such grandiose notions for self-serving purposes, including to exert control of students, the scholars argue.  “In the settings such as those that generate microaggression catalogs … where offenders are oppressors and victims are the oppressed, it also raises the moral status of the victims,” the scholars state in their article. “This only increases the incentive to publicize grievances, and it means aggrieved parties are especially likely to highlight their identity as victims, emphasizing their own suffering and innocence. Their adversaries are privileged and blameworthy, but they themselves are pitiable and blameless.”  The scholarly article, “Microaggression and Moral Cultures,” was written by sociologists Bradley Campbell and Jason Manning, professors at Cal State Los Angeles and The University of West Virginia, respectively.  I'd like to try victimhood.  Can anyone name a quality oppressor? 

September 18, 2015       Permalink

YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK – AT 1:20 P.M. ET:  We depend on the Census Bureau to be accurate, complete, and honest.  Lots of luck.  From the Washington Times:

Employees in the Census Bureau’s hiring office bilked the government out of $1.1 million in pay they never earned, broke government rules by hiring friends and tried to intimidate whistleblowers who ratted them out, according to a new inspector general’s report Thursday that said supervisors even “led” the misconduct.

The worst of the employees overcharged for at least 1,277 hours, collecting nearly $65,000 for time that wasn’t actually worked. Another better-paid employee charged for 890 hours not worked, collecting more than $85,000, and still another collected $74,488 for 478 hours never worked — at an hourly wage of more than $155.

All told, 40 employees in the office — more than half of the workers during the time examined by the Commerce Department Office of Inspector General — were found to have claimed bogus hours worked.

The Census Bureau has reacted forcefully, saying employees named in the report who have access to “sensitive” systems were put on immediate leave. The agency also vowed to use whatever legal means it can to try to get the money back from the dishonest employees.

COMMENT:  I wonder how they were chosen in the first place.  When more than half the employees in a section are corrupt, we have to assume that hiring procedures may have been influenced by factors other than excellence.

September 18, 2015       Permalink

ANOTHER GIFT FROM OUR NEW IRANIAN FRIENDS – AT 10:14 A.M. ET:   Usually, when a country enters into an international agreement with an adversary, it tries to moderate its language to put on the appearance of "good faith."  Not Iran.  It doesn't even worry about appearances, especially when dealing with a weak American president.  From Britain's Sky News: 

Iran has released five senior al Qaeda operatives from detention and will soon allow them to leave the country, prompting fears they will join other terrorists in Syria planning attacks on the West.

According to intelligence sources, three of the five are members of al Qaeda's ruling committee, the Shura Council.

They were released in exchange for an Iranian diplomat kidnapped in Yemen earlier this year.

The move comes not long after the American-led coalition in Syria bombed and killed several members of an organisation known as the Khorasan Group - an al Qaeda network based in Syria but focusing on planning attacks in the West using operatives with foreign passports.

Among those killed was Mohsin al Fadhli, who had also been based in Iran and was released by Tehran.

Intelligence sources said that while the Shi'a theocracy of Iran and the Sunni extremist group al Qaeda were theoretical enemies, there has been an "understanding" that the two would avoid attacks on one another and focus on battling the "shared threat" of the West.

Among those released in exchange for the Iranian diplomat was Abu al Kheir al Masri - the former head of al Qaeda's "external relations" committee, who was once seen as a possible replacement for Osama bin Laden at the top of the organisation.

Alongside him was Saif al Adel - considered Number Three in the al Qaeda hierarchy, according to an intelligence report seen by Sky News.

COMMENT:  And yet the nuclear deal goes through without any protest to Iran about its bandit behavior.   And the "Death to America" chants continue every day.  I've never seen a deal quite like this.

September 18,  2015     Permalink

EUROPE COOLS ON REFUGEES – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:   For a short time Europe tried to put on a "humiliate America" show about how many refugees it was taking from the exploding Middle East.  Now the enthusiasm has cooled in the face of the obvious – that European publics aren't very enthusiastic about seeing their cultures changed on a dime.  From WaPo: 

ZAGREB, Croatia — European nations once friendly to refugees abruptly yanked their welcome mats Thursday, as Germany considered slashing its benefits and Croatia announced it was closing most of its road links with Serbia “until further notice.”

The German measures would overhaul asylum codes to stem the massive flow of migrants into Europe, scaling back the generous policies that have made Germany a beacon for desperate war refugees and economic migrants pouring out of the Middle East, Africa and beyond.

In a 128-page draft law produced by the German Interior Ministry and obtained by The Washington Post, the government would speed asylum procedures, cut cash benefits, hasten deportations and punish those with false claims and phony paperwork.

The tough new measures, the draft bill states, are needed to cope with the huge influx of refugees into Germany, where 800,000 asylum applications were expected this year in a country with a population of 81 million.

COMMENT:  The refugee influx into Europe is one of the biggest stories of our time, but we may not see its effect until refugee populations start to vote, and influence European policy.

And there will be more refugees.   Middle East countries are collapsing.  In Africa, many people are getting the migration feeling.  Most are legitimate seekers of a better life.  Others may be infiltrators who have the potential to do horrendous things.

And there is pressure on America to take more migrants, most of whom probably have little liking for "the American way of life." 

September 18, 2015       Permalink

WHAT WE SEE – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  The Republican debate was Wednesday night.  This is what we are seeing in response:

There have been very few useful polls to come out of the debate.  Some are online polls, which are voluntary and thus subject to manipulation by campaigns urging followers to get online and vote.  Others have been too narrow.  The most interesting poll, by Gravis, surveyed Republican voters who watched the debate.  (Click on "see more."): 

Washington, D.C., September 17, 2015 - One America News Network, “OAN”, a credible source for 24/7 national and international news, announces its national post-debate poll taken immediately after Wednesday night’s GOP Debate at the Ronald Reagan Library. Carly Fiorina jumps to first place at 22 percent, tied with Donald Trump. OAN’s previous national poll, conducted on September 3-4, showed the former HP top executive in seventh place with 2.7%. Marco Rubio lands in the third spot with 15 percent. The U.S. Senator from Florida ranked third in OAN’s early September poll with 12 percent, a three point gain for Rubio. Rounding out the top five are Dr. Ben Carson at 12 percent followed by Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush tied at 6 percent. Bush drops nearly half his early September support of 11.4 percent to a post-debate 6 percent.

Obviously, this is an immediate reaction to the debate, but it demonstrates the truth of what most pundits said – that Fiorina won the debate and is actively challenging Trump, but that Rubio also made impressive gains.

We'll be looking for other polls.

Also, what we saw yesterday was a remarkable number of stories about Carly Fiorina's record as CEO of Hewlett-Packard.  The stories were less than favorable.  It was not only Carly's statistical record that was reviewed, but her management style and personal approach.  She did not come off well.  However, it should be pointed out that 1) any new CEO coming in to save a company is going to leave many unhappy people, especially those who are fired or sidetracked, and 2) Fiorina's tenure at HP ended ten years ago. 

If Fiorina winds up on the ticket she will have to defend her record, but she does so very articulately.  Whether her defense can be convincing may be another story.  One thing is clear:  In terms of debating and being quick on her feet, she is the best Republican candidate.  In terms of articulating detailed policy positions, I'd put Rubio at the top.

It is very early.  A year from today we might look back on our observations and laugh, but I don't think so.  Two debates give us a pretty good picture of how candidates present themselves.

The biggest loser in the debates so far, and it's surprising, is Scott Walker, a man who's used to rough politics and who's always come out ahead.  But he's not translated his success as governor of Wisconsin into a convincing national run.  That might change, but Walker is running out of time to make his case. 

On Donald Trump:  The general feeling I've seen is that he didn't do himself any good in the debate, but didn't make any huge mistakes either, except for being Trump-like.  Voters like him because he presumably "tells it like it is."  Maybe so, but there's a growing belief that he also has to "tell us what he'd do."  The missing policies are starting to show.

September 18, 2015     Permalink